Unfortunatley this article on the Australian Financial Review pretty much sums it up for us here in Australia and probably many others around the world.
Hopefully this year things level out a bit and the markets are a bit more predictable....
A DECADE TO WRITE OFF
Tuesday, 22 December 2015
Friday, 11 December 2015
CAPITALISING ON YOUR SUCCESS
Ok, things are starting to go good and you're making money consistently, everything is looking good.... What to do now?
SEPERATE YOUR MONEY
Diversify your money maybe put a set amount from your earnings into another place like pay off debts, especially if you have mortgage - maybe start another account (IG markets lets you have multiple accounts) and maybe trade something different like gold or an FX using the same strategies....
MINIMISE YOUR RISK
If you started (like I advised) on 1 x ASX200 contract on $2000 and you want to increase your earnings you can play 2 x ASX200 on each trade. I like to see my risk reduce each time I up the bet so maybe i wouldn't start trading on 2 contracts until I hit $5000 (and hopefully have taken back my initial investment in payments) and 3x contracts till I hit $9000 this means that If I was to get to an account balance of $9000 I'm probably making $150 per day (thats my average anyway) on trading 3 x contracts and this is where I find it becomes a very real and valuable addition to my income. $3000 per contract would give me an approximate trading range of 450-500 points which gives me a greater safety range than trading one contract per $2000 (which would give a 300-350 point range) the further along things progress I would maybe to to 4 x contracts on $16000 and 5 x contracts on say $25000 which would give you saftey margin of 650 points (approx) which is a fair trading range and will allow you to sleep at night without constant fear of being sold off in the event of a sudden dip or whatnot.
I view trading on 1 x contract on $2000 bit of a risk and in the last 2 months there's been two events where I would have been sold out. But unfortunately we all have to start somewhere, some start on less than but at the end of the day $2000 is not a lot of money but once you get past $5000 and then $9000 this is serious money to most people and its a good idea to minimise the risk (even though by now its not really your money your playing with) its a valuable lump sum and and even more invaluable tool to make a regular income out of NOT something to be taken lightly. It is better to have this amount coming in regularly Ideally i want to have this coming in as an income for the rest of my life, the actual dollar amount for me is not as important than the security of having something come in like clockwork every day or week but thats just me, you may make more money by upping your bets and taking a risk but you may also get sold out and have to start all over again
I'm now trading over $3000 per contract and it is this that managed to get me through the turbulence of the last couple of months hopefully soon i'll be trading on $4000 or more and believe me its much better for your heart and sleeping patterns :)
SEPERATE YOUR MONEY
Diversify your money maybe put a set amount from your earnings into another place like pay off debts, especially if you have mortgage - maybe start another account (IG markets lets you have multiple accounts) and maybe trade something different like gold or an FX using the same strategies....
MINIMISE YOUR RISK
If you started (like I advised) on 1 x ASX200 contract on $2000 and you want to increase your earnings you can play 2 x ASX200 on each trade. I like to see my risk reduce each time I up the bet so maybe i wouldn't start trading on 2 contracts until I hit $5000 (and hopefully have taken back my initial investment in payments) and 3x contracts till I hit $9000 this means that If I was to get to an account balance of $9000 I'm probably making $150 per day (thats my average anyway) on trading 3 x contracts and this is where I find it becomes a very real and valuable addition to my income. $3000 per contract would give me an approximate trading range of 450-500 points which gives me a greater safety range than trading one contract per $2000 (which would give a 300-350 point range) the further along things progress I would maybe to to 4 x contracts on $16000 and 5 x contracts on say $25000 which would give you saftey margin of 650 points (approx) which is a fair trading range and will allow you to sleep at night without constant fear of being sold off in the event of a sudden dip or whatnot.
I view trading on 1 x contract on $2000 bit of a risk and in the last 2 months there's been two events where I would have been sold out. But unfortunately we all have to start somewhere, some start on less than but at the end of the day $2000 is not a lot of money but once you get past $5000 and then $9000 this is serious money to most people and its a good idea to minimise the risk (even though by now its not really your money your playing with) its a valuable lump sum and and even more invaluable tool to make a regular income out of NOT something to be taken lightly. It is better to have this amount coming in regularly Ideally i want to have this coming in as an income for the rest of my life, the actual dollar amount for me is not as important than the security of having something come in like clockwork every day or week but thats just me, you may make more money by upping your bets and taking a risk but you may also get sold out and have to start all over again
I'm now trading over $3000 per contract and it is this that managed to get me through the turbulence of the last couple of months hopefully soon i'll be trading on $4000 or more and believe me its much better for your heart and sleeping patterns :)
Thursday, 3 December 2015
SAFTEY RULES ON LEVERAGED TRADING
SAFETY RULES ON LEVERAGED TRADING
Here are some "Mental Health" and "Safety" ideas I have learned from the last 5-6 years playing on CFD markets. Read them, they are important and will quite probably save you heaps of grief and stress
Here's some safety rules and general advice for anyone using CFDs:
Here are some "Mental Health" and "Safety" ideas I have learned from the last 5-6 years playing on CFD markets. Read them, they are important and will quite probably save you heaps of grief and stress
Here's some safety rules and general advice for anyone using CFDs:
Don't use borrowed money to play on a Margin or CFD Platform - The events of huge market swings have become all to common now and there is no point loosing money and still having to pay off a loan
Only play with money that you can afford to loose - And chances are you WILL loose initially. I did, everyone I know who plays on the CFD platforms has lost their money on the first few ventures into this world. The trading environment is tricky right now, it has been for a couple of years and shows no sign of easing up. It takes a while before people have grasp the real concepts of highly leveraged trading instruments and how badly they can be affected by leveraged markets
CFD trading and to a lesser extent Margin lending is stressful - If you don't have the head for it better to find out now than after you've invested a large lump sum into it. You WILL have sleepless nights - it will pre-occupy many of your thoughts and take up a lot of your waking hours. Be warned. CFD trading is a much different head space to just a slow buy and hold strategy and is not for everyone. It is risky and if you are naturally adverse to risk this is NOT for you
Take out winnings regularly. Eventually you will start to make money, I take out 50% of what I earn on an almost daily basis so if a huge market swing comes along and wipes out my trading fund I can say to myself at least I had that income coming in , and hopefully I have made back my initial investement (which for me usually takes a 2-3 months)
Keep an Emergency Fund Put a little aside to start trading again from scratch in the event of a market swing going against you and wiping out your trading fund. then you can start again and keep the cash flow coming in.
DIVERSIFY - if you find that you're making a lot of money dump it back in a non leveraged portfolio or use it to pay down loans mortgages etc.... use some common sense,,,, don't go spending it all on hookers and crack!
TIMING IS EVERYTHING
Ok, we've reached a situation where Gold is at its lowest point in 5 years... (Dec 3, 2015)
Do you think it will go up or down? (I think it will recover from here in the short term, but thats just my opinion) so what do we do? If you DO think it will go up consider buying some gold, or the shares that have taken an almighty beating because of the gold price drop, if you have access to the australian markets BHP, Newcrest Mining NCM and Fortescue Mining FMG have taken some huge hits.
Also Oil, and Iron Ore, Silver and many minerals have copped what we Australians' call a 'flogging' . Here's some home work for you, check out the share prices companies that mine/distribute/resell oil, gold, ore etc... and look at how they are doing in the sense of where they are for the year, last few months and last few years.
In my opinion there are some bargains going begging. Go have a look!!!
UPDATE: Ok, I made a prediction a couple of days ago that gold will go up, as it took a beating and was poised to go up. 2 days later it went up by $30.00 per ounce (approx) which means I made a nice little bit of extra cash and did it quick. I don't usually trade gold so now I'll get out (runs off down the pub) and withdraw my recommendation. I still think Gold will go up in the long term from where it is now, but for my interests and strategies I'd rather sit on on the sidelines for a while and wait till it cops another hammering and make a decision then.
Do you think it will go up or down? (I think it will recover from here in the short term, but thats just my opinion) so what do we do? If you DO think it will go up consider buying some gold, or the shares that have taken an almighty beating because of the gold price drop, if you have access to the australian markets BHP, Newcrest Mining NCM and Fortescue Mining FMG have taken some huge hits.
Also Oil, and Iron Ore, Silver and many minerals have copped what we Australians' call a 'flogging' . Here's some home work for you, check out the share prices companies that mine/distribute/resell oil, gold, ore etc... and look at how they are doing in the sense of where they are for the year, last few months and last few years.
In my opinion there are some bargains going begging. Go have a look!!!
This is the gold chart from today , covering 2007-2015 where it finished on around 1050 per ounce. In all honesty it could go lower but I don't think the downside risk is much bigger than the upside gain, but thats a choice for each individual investor, i'll be taking a short term position on gold ;)
Wednesday, 2 December 2015
Saturday, 28 November 2015
WHY DO SHARES MOVE UP AND DOWN IN VALUE?
Basically it comes down to supply and demand.
If more people want a particular share than already own it, it will drive the market price of that share up if people don't want it and more people are motivated to sell it it will drive the price down.
There are a lot of reasons why people may want to hold or sell off a particular commodity these may include:
Company performance a good or poor performance at reporting time or any time news or data is released can move the price of a share around, especially around the time of dividend payouts and announcements
An extraordinary event like a disaster - like a mining collapse, senior management being indicted for fraud... or takeover bid,
Market sentiment - which can include random fear or optimism for a range of reasons, like threat of war, fear or expectations of interest rates moving up and down, or even a reaction to fears like the Greek and Chinese issues of late, environmental disasters and lots more.
Institutional trading- while the average investor probably isn't going to move the price of a share around by simply buying or selling if a hedge fund or bank decides to offload or buy a bunch of shares for whatever reason it may have nothing to do with the performance of the company itself this can move the price around in a big way
Triggered Selling - this is a hard one to gauge but a sharp movement in price of any commodity share or index may trigger off a bunch of sell or buy orders that people have previously put in the market and move the price of that commodity around as well. Since much trading is done online and executed by computers this can really come into play in what I call 'flash crashes'
If more people want a particular share than already own it, it will drive the market price of that share up if people don't want it and more people are motivated to sell it it will drive the price down.
There are a lot of reasons why people may want to hold or sell off a particular commodity these may include:
Company performance a good or poor performance at reporting time or any time news or data is released can move the price of a share around, especially around the time of dividend payouts and announcements
An extraordinary event like a disaster - like a mining collapse, senior management being indicted for fraud... or takeover bid,
Market sentiment - which can include random fear or optimism for a range of reasons, like threat of war, fear or expectations of interest rates moving up and down, or even a reaction to fears like the Greek and Chinese issues of late, environmental disasters and lots more.
Institutional trading- while the average investor probably isn't going to move the price of a share around by simply buying or selling if a hedge fund or bank decides to offload or buy a bunch of shares for whatever reason it may have nothing to do with the performance of the company itself this can move the price around in a big way
Triggered Selling - this is a hard one to gauge but a sharp movement in price of any commodity share or index may trigger off a bunch of sell or buy orders that people have previously put in the market and move the price of that commodity around as well. Since much trading is done online and executed by computers this can really come into play in what I call 'flash crashes'
Thursday, 26 November 2015
COPING WITH MARKET VOLATILITY
Holy crap the markets have been volatile of late! At the time of writing this my chosen index the ASX200 has taken a huge beating over the last couple of weeks. Peaking at 5410 in late October to dropping like a ton of bricks to 4976 a couple of weeks later ... Then rallying for 5 days and making 300 of those points back and then flailing around around like a dying fish for the next week. That equates to a range of 434 points from top to bottom, It also equates to a few headaches for me and a LOT of beers consumed to help calm the nerves. What is going on? Who the hell knows? Bloombergs doesn't .... no other stock site I subscribe to has any idea whats going on...... and quite frankly neither do I. Unfortunately fear is ruling the market as I write this and how the f--k do we cope with these trading conditions? Here's my thoughts, ideas and practices on the matter:
My trading strategy (with the amount of money I had in there at the time) really only allowed me to trade with a range of 350 points. Obviously this creates a problem and means I would have gotten sold out if I had not employed a range of strategies to counteract this fall.
TOP OF THE MARKET:
Looking at the graph at the peak, you'll notice the huge gains the market made on the right before the drop began. I felt this was unusually high. Lets say I was trading 3 x lots of ASX200 with each position I took out, but i had a feeling that high was an artifical high and stripped my trades back to 1 x position for the first few trades , then up to 2 x positions and the 3 x positions so that if/when the markets fell over I would not be trailing losses on x2 or x3 positions all the way down to the bottom of the market. This provided some very useful padding
SELL POSITIONS:
I took out sell positions against my buys so I was making money on market fluctuations in both directions my idea was to take out 1 sell every 20 points apart at the top of the market and 1 buy 20 points apart and later 2 x buys when the market dropped a little this meant I was making money a little faster and added to my trading fund a little faster and gave me yet more padding to ride the wave down. This works well in normal market conditions and serves to help buffer your trading fund with a little extra cash in case a big sell off occurs, but realistically it does it NOT prepare you for a really big sell off, but it is still useful.
When it became painfully obvious that the big sell off was imminent (this is partly gut feeling / experience / news reports showing fear in the market) I took out more sell positions to counteract my buy positions. Not too many more so that if the sell off didn't occur I would be in a lot of trouble but enough that I could profit off the falling markets and keep my own positions secure. I then let the markets sell off that next day and closed off some profitable positions to boost my own cash reserves and hedge the bets in case it did go back up and put profitable sell orders on others in case of a reversal meaning i wouldn't get caught with a bunch of sells at the wrong end of the market in the event of a sudden reversal
Read: HEDGING YOUR BETS FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS
IMPORTANT:
With IG markets if you are trading both ways it is of the utmost importance to press the "force trade:" box on the trade screen right before you execute the trade otherwise your trade will cancel out an existing trade and invariably this will result in a postion being closed at a loss (usually a big loss) Ring your provider whether you are with IG markets or someone else about this and make sure you know how trading both ways works, IT IS ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT THING YOU NEED TO KNOW
Again, this does not mean you will survive a big fall but it does increase the odds of you surviving such a fall. Employing these strategies is how I survived he last fall. I WOULD have been closed out for sure.
I don't think things are going to quieten down anytime soon either.
My trading strategy (with the amount of money I had in there at the time) really only allowed me to trade with a range of 350 points. Obviously this creates a problem and means I would have gotten sold out if I had not employed a range of strategies to counteract this fall.
TOP OF THE MARKET:
Looking at the graph at the peak, you'll notice the huge gains the market made on the right before the drop began. I felt this was unusually high. Lets say I was trading 3 x lots of ASX200 with each position I took out, but i had a feeling that high was an artifical high and stripped my trades back to 1 x position for the first few trades , then up to 2 x positions and the 3 x positions so that if/when the markets fell over I would not be trailing losses on x2 or x3 positions all the way down to the bottom of the market. This provided some very useful padding
SELL POSITIONS:
I took out sell positions against my buys so I was making money on market fluctuations in both directions my idea was to take out 1 sell every 20 points apart at the top of the market and 1 buy 20 points apart and later 2 x buys when the market dropped a little this meant I was making money a little faster and added to my trading fund a little faster and gave me yet more padding to ride the wave down. This works well in normal market conditions and serves to help buffer your trading fund with a little extra cash in case a big sell off occurs, but realistically it does it NOT prepare you for a really big sell off, but it is still useful.
When it became painfully obvious that the big sell off was imminent (this is partly gut feeling / experience / news reports showing fear in the market) I took out more sell positions to counteract my buy positions. Not too many more so that if the sell off didn't occur I would be in a lot of trouble but enough that I could profit off the falling markets and keep my own positions secure. I then let the markets sell off that next day and closed off some profitable positions to boost my own cash reserves and hedge the bets in case it did go back up and put profitable sell orders on others in case of a reversal meaning i wouldn't get caught with a bunch of sells at the wrong end of the market in the event of a sudden reversal
Read: HEDGING YOUR BETS FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS
IMPORTANT:
With IG markets if you are trading both ways it is of the utmost importance to press the "force trade:" box on the trade screen right before you execute the trade otherwise your trade will cancel out an existing trade and invariably this will result in a postion being closed at a loss (usually a big loss) Ring your provider whether you are with IG markets or someone else about this and make sure you know how trading both ways works, IT IS ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT THING YOU NEED TO KNOW
Again, this does not mean you will survive a big fall but it does increase the odds of you surviving such a fall. Employing these strategies is how I survived he last fall. I WOULD have been closed out for sure.
I don't think things are going to quieten down anytime soon either.
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